Kablovi Zaječar 1–2 Morava Vladičin Han

Kablovi Zaječar

FT

1 – 2

Morava Vladičin Han

11/1/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 15Stadion FK Kablovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kablovi Zaječar31%

×Draw20%

Morava Vladičin Han50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kablovi ZaječarExpected goals in this matchMorava Vladičin Han

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

2.40

Kablovi Zaječar

1.87

Morava Vladičin Han

2.40

Morava Vladičin Han creates 28% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

0.95

creates per match

0.95

3.84

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Kablovi Zaječar

0.95

Morava Vladičin Han

0.95

allows per match

Kablovi Zaječar

3.84

Morava Vladičin Han

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par

Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kablovi Zaječar ↓

Morava Vladičin Han →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Kablovi Zaječar or draw

50%

Kablovi Zaječar or Morava Vladičin Han

80%

Draw or Morava Vladičin Han

69%

Winning margin

Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+

15%

Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals

85%

Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals

56%

Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals

29%

Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals

91%

Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals

69%

Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)

38%

Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kablovi Zaječar at home — creates 0.95, concedes 3.84 · 19 matches

Morava Vladičin Han away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.95 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 1.87

Morava Vladičin Han attack 0.95 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 3.84 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kablovi Zaječar scores more

31%

level

20%

Morava Vladičin Han scores more

50%

Morava Vladičin Han at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Morava Vladičin Han will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff