Morava Vladičin Han 1–2 Dunav Prahovo

Morava Vladičin Han

FT

1 – 2

Dunav Prahovo

4/24/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 30Stadion FK Morava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Morava Vladičin Han50%

×Draw23%

Dunav Prahovo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Morava Vladičin HanExpected goals in this matchDunav Prahovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.26

Morava Vladičin Han

1.79

Dunav Prahovo

1.26

Morava Vladičin Han creates 42% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 79 away

1.68

creates per match

1.05

1.47

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Morava Vladičin Han

1.68

Dunav Prahovo

1.05

allows per match

Morava Vladičin Han

1.47

Dunav Prahovo

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morava Vladičin Han ↓

Dunav Prahovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Morava Vladičin Han or draw

73%

Morava Vladičin Han or Dunav Prahovo

77%

Draw or Dunav Prahovo

50%

Winning margin

Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+

27%

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals

83%

Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals

53%

Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals

26%

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals

72%

Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals

36%

Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)

65%

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morava Vladičin Han at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Dunav Prahovo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morava Vladičin Han attack 1.68 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.79

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.05 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Morava Vladičin Han scores more

50%

level

23%

Dunav Prahovo scores more

27%

Morava Vladičin Han at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Morava Vladičin Han will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff