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Dunav Prahovo vs Morava Vladičin Han — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dunav Prahovo
Dunav Prahovo
FT
3 – 1
Morava Vladičin Han
Morava Vladičin Han
10/7/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 11Stadion FK Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dunav Prahovo65%
×Draw19%
Morava Vladičin Han16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Prahovo
2.24
Morava Vladičin Han
1.02

Dunav Prahovo creates 120% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.69
Morava Vladičin Han
0.95

allows per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.09
Morava Vladičin Han
2.79

finishing

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par
Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Prahovo ↓

Morava Vladičin Han →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dunav Prahovo or draw
84%
Dunav Prahovo or Morava Vladičin Han
81%
Draw or Morava Vladičin Han
35%

Winning margin

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+
41%
Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals
89%
Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals
65%
Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals
38%
Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals
64%
Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals
27%
Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)
80%
Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Prahovo at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Morava Vladičin Han away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.69 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.24

Morava Vladičin Han attack 0.95 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Dunav Prahovo scores more
65%
level
19%
Morava Vladičin Han scores more
16%

Dunav Prahovo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dunav Prahovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Dunav Prahovo 3–1 Morava Vladičin Han

Dunav Prahovo beat Morava Vladičin Han 3-1 in Srpska Liga - East on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Dunav in Prahovo.