Morava Vladičin Han 0–0 Budućnost Popovac

Morava Vladičin Han

FT

0 – 0

Budućnost Popovac

4/3/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 26Stadion FK Morava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Morava Vladičin Han40%

×Draw24%

Budućnost Popovac35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Morava Vladičin HanExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Popovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.44

Morava Vladičin Han

1.56

Budućnost Popovac

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 87 away

1.68

creates per match

1.40

1.47

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Morava Vladičin Han

1.68

Budućnost Popovac

1.40

allows per match

Morava Vladičin Han

1.47

Budućnost Popovac

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morava Vladičin Han ↓

Budućnost Popovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Morava Vladičin Han or draw

65%

Morava Vladičin Han or Budućnost Popovac

76%

Draw or Budućnost Popovac

60%

Winning margin

Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+

20%

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals

79%

Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals

46%

Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals

21%

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals

76%

Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals

42%

Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)

53%

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morava Vladičin Han at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morava Vladičin Han attack 1.68 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Morava Vladičin Han scores more

40%

level

24%

Budućnost Popovac scores more

35%

Morava Vladičin Han at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Morava Vladičin Han will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff