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Budućnost Popovac vs Morava Vladičin Han — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
FT
4 – 1
Morava Vladičin Han
Morava Vladičin Han
9/16/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 7Stadion Popovac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Budućnost Popovac66%
×Draw19%
Morava Vladičin Han15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Popovac
2.31
Morava Vladičin Han
1.01

Budućnost Popovac creates 129% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 19 away

creates per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.84
Morava Vladičin Han
0.95

allows per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.07
Morava Vladičin Han
2.79

finishing

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par
Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Popovac ↓

Morava Vladičin Han →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Budućnost Popovac or draw
85%
Budućnost Popovac or Morava Vladičin Han
81%
Draw or Morava Vladičin Han
34%

Winning margin

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
43%
Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
90%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
67%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
40%
Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals
64%
Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals
27%
Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
81%
Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Popovac at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Morava Vladičin Han away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.84 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.31

Morava Vladičin Han attack 0.95 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Budućnost Popovac scores more
66%
level
19%
Morava Vladičin Han scores more
15%

Budućnost Popovac at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budućnost Popovac vs Morava Vladičin Han

Budućnost Popovac beat Morava Vladičin Han 4-1 in Srpska Liga - East on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Popovac in Popovac.