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Moratalaz vs Flat Earth — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Moratalaz
Moratalaz
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Flat Earth
Flat Earth
2/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 24Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Moratalaz41%
×Draw28%
Flat Earth31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moratalaz
1.26
Flat Earth
1.05

Moratalaz creates 20% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 28 away

creates per match

Moratalaz
1.31
Flat Earth
0.82

allows per match

Moratalaz
1.29
Flat Earth
1.21

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par
Flat Earth+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

Flat Earth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw
69%
Moratalaz or Flat Earth
72%
Draw or Flat Earth
59%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+
18%
Flat Earth wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals
72%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
36%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
13%
Flat Earth 1+ goals
65%
Flat Earth 2+ goals
28%
Flat Earth 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)
57%
Flat Earth (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Flat Earth away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + Flat Earth defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.26

Flat Earth attack 0.82 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Moratalaz scores more
41%
level
28%
Flat Earth scores more
31%

Moratalaz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Moratalaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moratalaz vs Flat Earth

Moratalaz and Flat Earth drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz in Madrid.