Flat Earth 1–3 Moratalaz: Result & Stats

Flat Earth

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Moratalaz

12/20/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 10Campo de Fútbol Castroserna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Flat Earth46%

×Draw27%

Moratalaz27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flat EarthExpected goals in this matchMoratalaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.00

Flat Earth

1.40

Moratalaz

1.00

Flat Earth creates 40% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 48 away

1.25

creates per match

1.10

0.89

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Flat Earth

1.25

Moratalaz

1.10

allows per match

Flat Earth

0.89

Moratalaz

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flat Earth+0.00on par

Moratalaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flat Earth ↓

Moratalaz →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Flat Earth or draw

73%

Flat Earth or Moratalaz

73%

Draw or Moratalaz

54%

Winning margin

Flat Earth wins by 2+

22%

Moratalaz wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Flat Earth 1+ goals

75%

Flat Earth 2+ goals

41%

Flat Earth 3+ goals

17%

Moratalaz 1+ goals

63%

Moratalaz 2+ goals

26%

Moratalaz 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Flat Earth (draw refunded)

63%

Moratalaz (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Flat Earth at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Moratalaz away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Flat Earth attack 1.25 + Moratalaz defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Moratalaz attack 1.10 + Flat Earth defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Flat Earth scores more

46%

level

27%

Moratalaz scores more

27%

Flat Earth at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Flat Earth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff