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Moratalaz vs Colonia Moscardó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Moratalaz
Moratalaz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
10/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 6Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Moratalaz49%
×Draw26%
Colonia Moscardó25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moratalaz
1.50
Colonia Moscardó
0.99

Moratalaz creates 52% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 37 away

creates per match

Moratalaz
1.31
Colonia Moscardó
0.70

allows per match

Moratalaz
1.29
Colonia Moscardó
1.70

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par
Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

Colonia Moscardó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw
75%
Moratalaz or Colonia Moscardó
74%
Draw or Colonia Moscardó
51%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+
25%
Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals
78%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
44%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
19%
Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
63%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
26%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)
66%
Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Colonia Moscardó away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Colonia Moscardó attack 0.70 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Moratalaz scores more
49%
level
26%
Colonia Moscardó scores more
25%

Moratalaz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Moratalaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Moratalaz 1 – 0 Colonia Moscardó

Moratalaz beat Colonia Moscardó 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz in Madrid.