Colonia Moscardó 2–1 Moratalaz: Result & Stats

Colonia Moscardó

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Moratalaz

2/6/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 27Estadio Román Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Colonia Moscardó35%

×Draw25%

Moratalaz39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colonia MoscardóExpected goals in this matchMoratalaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.42

Colonia Moscardó

1.34

Moratalaz

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 48 away

1.14

creates per match

1.10

1.73

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Colonia Moscardó

1.14

Moratalaz

1.10

allows per match

Colonia Moscardó

1.73

Moratalaz

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Moratalaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colonia Moscardó ↓

Moratalaz →

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Colonia Moscardó or draw

61%

Colonia Moscardó or Moratalaz

75%

Draw or Moratalaz

65%

Winning margin

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+

16%

Moratalaz wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals

74%

Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals

39%

Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals

15%

Moratalaz 1+ goals

76%

Moratalaz 2+ goals

41%

Moratalaz 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)

48%

Moratalaz (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colonia Moscardó at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

Moratalaz away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colonia Moscardó attack 1.14 + Moratalaz defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Moratalaz attack 1.10 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colonia Moscardó scores more

35%

level

25%

Moratalaz scores more

39%

Moratalaz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Moratalaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff