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Moratalaz vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Moratalaz
Moratalaz
CANC
22:00
Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 37Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Moratalaz37%
×Draw26%
Alcobendas Sport37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moratalaz
1.31
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 117 away

creates per match

Moratalaz
1.31
Alcobendas Sport
1.31

allows per match

Moratalaz
1.29
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par
Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

Alcobendas Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw
63%
Moratalaz or Alcobendas Sport
74%
Draw or Alcobendas Sport
63%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+
17%
Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals
73%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
38%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
14%
Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
73%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
37%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)
50%
Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Moratalaz scores more
37%
level
26%
Alcobendas Sport scores more
37%

Moratalaz at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Moratalaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Moratalaz face Alcobendas Sport (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 returns with Moratalaz hosting Alcobendas Sport. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Moratalaz host Alcobendas Sport at Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.