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Alcobendas Sport vs Moratalaz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moratalaz
Moratalaz
9/15/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Campos Municipales Valle de la Oliva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Alcobendas Sport42%
×Draw26%
Moratalaz32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcobendas Sport
1.42
Moratalaz
1.19

Alcobendas Sport creates 19% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 48 away

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.30
Moratalaz
1.10

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.28
Moratalaz
1.54

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par
Moratalaz+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

Moratalaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw
68%
Alcobendas Sport or Moratalaz
74%
Draw or Moratalaz
58%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
20%
Moratalaz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
76%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
41%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
17%
Moratalaz 1+ goals
70%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
33%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
57%
Moratalaz (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

Moratalaz away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + Moratalaz defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Moratalaz attack 1.10 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more
42%
level
26%
Moratalaz scores more
32%

Alcobendas Sport at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcobendas Sport vs Moratalaz

Alcobendas Sport beat Moratalaz 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 15, 2021.

The match was played at Campos Municipales Valle de la Oliva in Majadahonda.