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Moralo vs CD Coria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Moralo
Moralo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CD Coria
CD Coria
1/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 13Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Moralo37%
×Draw29%
CD Coria33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moralo
1.14
CD Coria
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 45 away

creates per match

Moralo
1.72
CD Coria
1.38

allows per match

Moralo
0.75
CD Coria
0.56

finishing

Moralo+0.00on par
CD Coria+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moralo ↓

CD Coria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Moralo or draw
67%
Moralo or CD Coria
71%
Draw or CD Coria
63%

Winning margin

Moralo wins by 2+
15%
CD Coria wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Moralo 1+ goals
68%
Moralo 2+ goals
32%
Moralo 3+ goals
11%
CD Coria 1+ goals
65%
CD Coria 2+ goals
29%
CD Coria 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Moralo (draw refunded)
53%
CD Coria (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moralo at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.75 · 109 matches

CD Coria away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moralo attack 1.72 + CD Coria defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.14

CD Coria attack 1.38 + Moralo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Moralo scores more
37%
level
29%
CD Coria scores more
33%

Moralo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Moralo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moralo vs CD Coria

Moralo and CD Coria drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata in Navalmoral de la Mata.