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CD Coria vs Moralo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

CD Coria
CD Coria
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Moralo
Moralo
11/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 11Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

CD Coria52%
×Draw24%
Moralo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Coria
1.69
Moralo
1.08

CD Coria creates 56% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 111 away

creates per match

CD Coria
2.14
Moralo
1.39

allows per match

CD Coria
0.77
Moralo
1.23

finishing

CD Coria+0.00on par
Moralo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Coria ↓

Moralo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CD Coria or draw
76%
CD Coria or Moralo
76%
Draw or Moralo
48%

Winning margin

CD Coria wins by 2+
28%
Moralo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CD Coria 1+ goals
82%
CD Coria 2+ goals
50%
CD Coria 3+ goals
24%
Moralo 1+ goals
66%
Moralo 2+ goals
29%
Moralo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CD Coria (draw refunded)
68%
Moralo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Coria at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Moralo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Coria attack 2.14 + Moralo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.69

Moralo attack 1.39 + CD Coria defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CD Coria scores more
52%
level
24%
Moralo scores more
24%

CD Coria at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CD Coria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: CD Coria 4–2 Moralo

CD Coria beat Moralo 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Isla in Coria.