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Moralo vs Cacereño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Moralo
Moralo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cacereño
Cacereño
4/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Moralo33%
×Draw28%
Cacereño39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moralo
1.14
Cacereño
1.27

Cacereño creates 11% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 27 away

creates per match

Moralo
1.72
Cacereño
1.78

allows per match

Moralo
0.75
Cacereño
0.56

finishing

Moralo+0.00on par
Cacereño+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moralo ↓

Cacereño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Moralo or draw
61%
Moralo or Cacereño
72%
Draw or Cacereño
67%

Winning margin

Moralo wins by 2+
13%
Cacereño wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Moralo 1+ goals
68%
Moralo 2+ goals
32%
Moralo 3+ goals
11%
Cacereño 1+ goals
72%
Cacereño 2+ goals
36%
Cacereño 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Moralo (draw refunded)
46%
Cacereño (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moralo at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.75 · 109 matches

Cacereño away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.56 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moralo attack 1.72 + Cacereño defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.14

Cacereño attack 1.78 + Moralo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Moralo scores more
33%
level
28%
Cacereño scores more
39%

Cacereño at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Moralo 1–0 Cacereño

Moralo beat Cacereño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata in Navalmoral de la Mata.