Cacereño 1–0 Moralo: Result & Stats

Cacereño

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Moralo

11/3/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 12Estadio Príncipe Felipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cacereño56%

×Draw23%

Moralo21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CacereñoExpected goals in this matchMoralo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.00

Cacereño

1.80

Moralo

1.00

Cacereño creates 80% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 111 away

2.38

creates per match

1.39

0.62

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Cacereño

2.38

Moralo

1.39

allows per match

Cacereño

0.62

Moralo

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cacereño+0.00on par

Moralo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cacereño ↓

Moralo →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cacereño or draw

79%

Cacereño or Moralo

77%

Draw or Moralo

44%

Winning margin

Cacereño wins by 2+

32%

Moralo wins by 2+

Team goals

Cacereño 1+ goals

83%

Cacereño 2+ goals

54%

Cacereño 3+ goals

27%

Moralo 1+ goals

63%

Moralo 2+ goals

26%

Moralo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cacereño (draw refunded)

73%

Moralo (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cacereño at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Moralo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cacereño attack 2.38 + Moralo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.80

Moralo attack 1.39 + Cacereño defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cacereño scores more

56%

level

23%

Moralo scores more

21%

Cacereño at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff