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Monza vs Modena — Serie B 2018

Monza
Monza
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Modena
Modena
S. Birindelli 27'
4/24/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 36Brianteo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Monza50%
×Draw26%
Modena23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza
1.47
Modena
0.90

Monza creates 63% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Monza
1.79
Modena
0.98

allows per match

Monza
0.81
Modena
1.15

finishing

Monza+0.01on par
Modena-0.10scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Modena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Monza or draw
77%
Monza or Modena
74%
Draw or Modena
50%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+
25%
Modena wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals
77%
Monza 2+ goals
43%
Monza 3+ goals
18%
Modena 1+ goals
59%
Modena 2+ goals
23%
Modena 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)
69%
Modena (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.81 · 10 matches

Modena away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.15 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.79 + Modena defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.47

Modena attack 0.98 + Monza defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Monza scores more
50%
level
26%
Modena scores more
23%

Monza at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
S. BirindelliMonzaMonza · M
7.9

Match Events

27'
S. Birindelli
45+2'
Daniel Tonoli
46'
B. Nieling← D. Tonoli
56'
G. Caso← A. Petagna
56'
Hernani← A. Colpani
57'
N. Pyyhtia← S. Wiafe
66'
P. Mendes← G. Ambrosino
66'
F. Zampano← G. Beyuku
70'
D. Mota← P. Cutrone
78'
M. Cotali← L. Zanimacchia
85'
Bryant Nieling
90'
Adam Bakoune

Possession

41%Monza

Shots

10Monza

Pass accuracy

48%Monza

Statistics

MonzaModena
Overview
41%Possession59%
10Total Shots15
0.43Expected Goals (xG)0.94
5Corners4
8Fouls20
Shots
10Total Shots15
4On Target5
3Off Target6
3Blocked4
7Inside Box7
3Outside Box8
Passing
41%Possession59%
342Total Passes491
269Accurate Passes423
79%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
-0.16Goals Prevented-0.16
Discipline
8Fouls20
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Serie B: Monza 1–0 Modena

Monza beat Modena 1-0 in Serie B on April 24, 2026.

Goals: S. Birindelli (27').

Modena controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Brianteo in Monza.