Modena 1–2 Monza: Result & Stats | Serie B

Modena

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Monza

E. Gliozzi 40' (pen)

L. Ravanelli 65'

P. Azzi 50'

12/26/2025

Serie B · Round 18Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Modena37%

×Draw28%

Monza34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModenaExpected goals in this matchMonza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.13

Modena

1.19

Monza

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.21

creates per match

1.26

0.99

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Modena

1.21

Monza

1.26

allows per match

Modena

0.99

Monza

1.18

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Modena-0.39scores less

Monza+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Monza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Modena or draw

66%

Modena or Monza

72%

Draw or Monza

63%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+

16%

Monza wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals

70%

Modena 2+ goals

33%

Modena 3+ goals

12%

Monza 1+ goals

68%

Monza 2+ goals

31%

Monza 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)

52%

Monza (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.99 · 11 matches

Monza away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.18 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.21 + Monza defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Monza attack 1.26 + Modena defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Modena scores more

37%

level

28%

Monza scores more

34%

Modena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

L. Ravanelli

Monza · D

8.0

Match Events

16'

Davide Adorni

18'

Keita Baldé

38'

Ettore GliozziPenalty confirmed

39'

Armando Izzo

40'

E. GliozziPenalty

44'

Francesco Zampano

44'

Matteo Pessina

50'

P. Azzi

64'

G. Beyuku← F. Zampano

65'

L. Ravanelli↳ K. Balde

74'

P. Mendes← Y. Massolin

74'

N. Pyyhtia← A. Sersanti

79'

A. Bakoune← S. Birindelli

80'

L. Magnino← S. Santoro

80'

F. Di Mariano← L. Zanimacchia

87'

Patrick Ciurria

89'

L. Lucchesi← P. Ciurria

90+5'

Gady Beyuku

90+1'

Daniel Tonoli

90+4'

A. Brorsson← K. Balde

90+4'

F. Delli Carri← L. Colombo

90'

A. Petagna← D. Mota

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ModenaMonza

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots14

1.91Expected Goals (xG)1.41

5Corners4

15Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots14

7On Target6

5Off Target4

0Blocked4

6Inside Box9

6Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

404Total Passes379

320Accurate Passes306

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls15

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Modena vs Monza

Monza beat Modena 2-1 in Serie B on December 26, 2025.

Goals: E. Gliozzi (40' pen), P. Azzi (50'), L. Ravanelli (65').

Modena controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Modena.

Modena vs Monza — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Modena vs Monza