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Monza vs Hellas Verona — Serie A 2018

Monza
Monza
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
11/6/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 13U-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Monza42%
×Draw29%
Hellas Verona29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza
1.24
Hellas Verona
0.99

Monza creates 25% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

creates per match

Monza
0.84
Hellas Verona
1.04

allows per match

Monza
0.93
Hellas Verona
1.64

finishing

Monza-0.01on par
Hellas Verona-0.34scores less

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Monza or draw
71%
Monza or Hellas Verona
71%
Draw or Hellas Verona
58%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+
19%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals
71%
Monza 2+ goals
35%
Monza 3+ goals
13%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
63%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
26%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)
59%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.93 · 6 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 0.84 + Hellas Verona defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.24

Hellas Verona attack 1.04 + Monza defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Monza scores more
42%
level
29%
Hellas Verona scores more
29%

Monza at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Monza 2–0 Hellas Verona

Monza beat Hellas Verona 2-0 in Serie A on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at U-Power Stadium in Monza.