Hellas Verona 1–1 Monza: Result & Stats | Serie A

Hellas Verona

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Monza

3/12/2023

Serie A · Round 26Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hellas Verona37%

×Draw28%

Monza35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hellas VeronaExpected goals in this matchMonza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.14

Hellas Verona

1.19

Monza

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

0.80

creates per match

1.23

1.05

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Hellas Verona

0.80

Monza

1.23

allows per match

Hellas Verona

1.05

Monza

1.57

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

Hellas Verona-0.17scores less

Monza+0.44scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Monza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw

65%

Hellas Verona or Monza

72%

Draw or Monza

63%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

16%

Monza wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

70%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

33%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

12%

Monza 1+ goals

68%

Monza 2+ goals

32%

Monza 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

52%

Monza (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Monza away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.57 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 0.80 + Monza defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.19

Monza attack 1.23 + Hellas Verona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hellas Verona scores more

37%

level

28%

Monza scores more

35%

Hellas Verona at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff