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Monza vs Catanzaro — Serie B 2018

Monza
Monza
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Catanzaro
Catanzaro
S. Birindelli 66'
A. Alvarez 37'
A. Cisse 5'
10/4/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 7Brianteo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Monza53%
×Draw24%
Catanzaro23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza
1.71
Catanzaro
1.04

Monza creates 64% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Monza
1.94
Catanzaro
1.27

allows per match

Monza
0.80
Catanzaro
1.48

finishing

Monza-0.05on par
Catanzaro+0.23scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Catanzaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Monza or draw
77%
Monza or Catanzaro
76%
Draw or Catanzaro
47%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+
29%
Catanzaro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals
82%
Monza 2+ goals
51%
Monza 3+ goals
24%
Catanzaro 1+ goals
65%
Catanzaro 2+ goals
28%
Catanzaro 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)
70%
Catanzaro (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.80 · 9 matches

Catanzaro away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.48 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.94 + Catanzaro defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.71

Catanzaro attack 1.27 + Monza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Monza scores more
53%
level
24%
Catanzaro scores more
23%

Monza at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
S. BirindelliMonzaMonza · M
8.2

Match Events

5'
A. Cisse↳ P. Iemmello
19'
Kevin Zeroli
34'
Samuele Birindelli
34'
Alphadjo Cissè
37'
A. Alvarez↳ S. Birindelli
62'
M. D'Alessandro← T. Cassandro
66'
S. Birindelli↳ A. Izzo
73'
N. Galazzi← A. Colpani
73'
F. Di Francesco← R. Oudin
74'
G. Di Chiara← D. Bettella
74'
L. Pandolfi← P. Iemmello
76'
L. Colombo← K. Balde
76'
M. Maric← A. Alvarez
84'
F. Pittarello← C. Favasuli
90+1'
F. Delli Carri← A. Carboni
90+1'
A. Brorsson← S. Birindelli

Possession

41%Monza

Shots

13Monza

Pass accuracy

49%Monza

Statistics

MonzaCatanzaro
Overview
41%Possession59%
13Total Shots10
5Corners3
17Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots10
3On Target4
8Off Target3
2Blocked3
10Inside Box5
3Outside Box5
Passing
41%Possession59%
359Total Passes542
294Accurate Passes474
82%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Serie B: Monza 2–1 Catanzaro

Monza beat Catanzaro 2-1 in Serie B on October 4, 2025.

Goals: A. Cisse (5'), A. Alvarez (37'), S. Birindelli (66').

Catanzaro controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Brianteo in Monza.