Catanzaro 1–1 Monza: Result & Stats | Serie B

Catanzaro

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Monza

S. Pontisso 6'

M. Pessina 90' (pen)

4/6/2026

Serie B · Round 33Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Catanzaro42%

×Draw26%

Monza31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CatanzaroExpected goals in this matchMonza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.18

Catanzaro

1.42

Monza

1.18

Catanzaro creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.67

creates per match

1.25

1.10

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Catanzaro

1.67

Monza

1.25

allows per match

Catanzaro

1.10

Monza

1.18

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

+0.50scores more than expected

finishing

Catanzaro+0.43scores more

Monza+0.50scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanzaro ↓

Monza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Catanzaro or draw

69%

Catanzaro or Monza

74%

Draw or Monza

58%

Winning margin

Catanzaro wins by 2+

20%

Monza wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Catanzaro 1+ goals

76%

Catanzaro 2+ goals

41%

Catanzaro 3+ goals

17%

Monza 1+ goals

69%

Monza 2+ goals

33%

Monza 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Catanzaro (draw refunded)

58%

Monza (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanzaro at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Monza away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.18 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanzaro attack 1.67 + Monza defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Monza attack 1.25 + Catanzaro defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Catanzaro scores more

42%

level

26%

Monza scores more

31%

Catanzaro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Catanzaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

S. Pontisso

Catanzaro · M

8.3

Match Events

6'

S. Pontisso

8'

Patrick Cutrone

15'

Marco D'Alessandro

18'

R. Frosinini← M. D'Alessandro

29'

32'

36'

45'

46'

46'

A. Carboni← L. Lucchesi

48'

Patrick Cutrone

48'

Patrick Cutrone

52'

K. Balde← P. Ciurria

67'

M. Pompetti← S. Pontisso

67'

F. Rispoli← M. Liberali

69'

74'

76'

76'

89'

N. Koffi← F. Pittarello

90'

M. PessinaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CatanzaroMonza

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots10

1.03Expected Goals (xG)1.12

1Corners5

15Fouls19

Shots

13Total Shots10

3On Target2

5Off Target5

5Blocked3

9Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

333Total Passes359

271Accurate Passes300

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.15Goals Prevented-0.15

Discipline

15Fouls19

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards2

3Offsides0