Monza 0–1 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

Monza

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AC Milan

T. Reijnders 43'

11/2/2024

Serie A · Round 11U-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Monza32%

×Draw26%

AC Milan42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonzaExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.39

Monza

1.17

AC Milan

1.39

AC Milan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 33 away

1.10

creates per match

1.50

1.28

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Monza

1.10

AC Milan

1.50

allows per match

Monza

1.28

AC Milan

1.23

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Monza-0.10scores less

AC Milan-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Monza or draw

58%

Monza or AC Milan

74%

Draw or AC Milan

68%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+

13%

AC Milan wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals

69%

Monza 2+ goals

33%

Monza 3+ goals

11%

AC Milan 1+ goals

75%

AC Milan 2+ goals

40%

AC Milan 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)

43%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 12 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.10 + AC Milan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Monza defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Monza scores more

32%

level

26%

AC Milan scores more

42%

AC Milan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

S. Turati

Monza · G

8.0

Match Events

43'

47'

52'

63'

65'

S. Vignato← Dany Mota

65'

D. D'Ambrosio← Pedro Pereira

78'

M. Marić← M. Đurić

78'

G. Caprari← A. Carboni

81'

R. Loftus-Cheek← S. Chukwueze

83'

Warren Bondo

87'

M. Valoti← W. Bondo

89'

Y. Musah← C. Pulišić

89'

D. Calabria← F. Terracciano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonzaAC

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots18

1.18Expected Goals (xG)2.54

3Corners5

18Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots18

2On Target7

7Off Target6

3Blocked5

5Inside Box14

7Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

359Total Passes472

309Accurate Passes425

86%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

0.20Goals Prevented0.20

Discipline

18Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Monza 0 – 1 AC Milan

AC Milan beat Monza 1-0 in Serie A on November 2, 2024.

Goals: T. Reijnders (43').

AC Milan controlled possession (56%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at U-Power Stadium in Monza.

Monza vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Monza 0 – 1 AC Milan