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Monza vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

Monza
Monza
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
AC Milan
AC Milan
L. Colombo 90+5'
W. Bondo 90'
Dany Mota 45+6'
M. Pessina 45' (pen)
C. Pulišić 88'
O. Giroud 64'
2/18/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 25U-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Monza32%
×Draw26%
AC Milan42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza
1.17
AC Milan
1.39

AC Milan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 33 away

creates per match

Monza
1.10
AC Milan
1.50

allows per match

Monza
1.28
AC Milan
1.23

finishing

Monza-0.10scores less
AC Milan-0.11scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Monza or draw
58%
Monza or AC Milan
74%
Draw or AC Milan
68%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+
13%
AC Milan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals
69%
Monza 2+ goals
33%
Monza 3+ goals
11%
AC Milan 1+ goals
75%
AC Milan 2+ goals
40%
AC Milan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)
43%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 12 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.10 + AC Milan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Monza defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Monza scores more
32%
level
26%
AC Milan scores more
42%

AC Milan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
C. PulišićAC MilanAC Milan · M
8.2

Match Events

33'
Milan Đurić
43'
A. Sorrentino← M. Di Gregorio
45+8'
Matteo Pessina
45'
M. PessinaPenalty
45+6'
Dany Mota↳ A. Colpani
46'
Rafael Leão← N. Oka
46'
T. Reijnders← Y. Adli
46'
C. Pulišić← S. Chukwueze
51'
Luka JovićCard upgrade
52'
Luka Jović
54'
O. Giroud← I. Bennacer
64'
O. Giroud↳ C. Pulišić
66'
W. Bondo← V. Carboni
66'
L. Colombo← M. Đurić
76'
Warren Bondo
76'
Dany Mota
81'
D. Maldini← Dany Mota
81'
Pedro Pereira← A. Colpani
83'
Matteo Gabbia
83'
Y. Musah← A. Florenzi
88'
C. Pulišić↳ M. Thiaw
90'
Matteo PessinaGoal confirmed
90'
W. Bondo↳ D. Maldini
90+5'
L. Colombo↳ M. Pessina

Possession

50%Monza

Shots

12Monza

Pass accuracy

50%Monza

Statistics

MonzaAC
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots16
1.75Expected Goals (xG)1.33
7Corners3
11Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots16
6On Target6
2Off Target4
4Blocked6
9Inside Box10
3Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
457Total Passes469
389Accurate Passes398
85%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls10
4Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1

Monza 4 – 2 AC Milan

Monza beat AC Milan 4-2 in Serie A on February 18, 2024.

Goals: M. Pessina (45' pen), Dany Mota (45+6'), O. Giroud (64'), C. Pulišić (88'), W. Bondo (90'), L. Colombo (90+5').

Monza controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 16.

The match was played at U-Power Stadium in Monza.