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Montrose vs Kilmarnock — League Cup 2018

Montrose
Montrose
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
7/16/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 5Links Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Montrose23%
×Draw25%
Kilmarnock52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montrose
0.97
Kilmarnock
1.60

Kilmarnock creates 65% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Montrose
1.07
Kilmarnock
1.86

allows per match

Montrose
1.33
Kilmarnock
0.86

finishing

Montrose+0.00on par
Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montrose ↓

Kilmarnock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Montrose or draw
48%
Montrose or Kilmarnock
75%
Draw or Kilmarnock
77%

Winning margin

Montrose wins by 2+
8%
Kilmarnock wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Montrose 1+ goals
62%
Montrose 2+ goals
25%
Montrose 3+ goals
7%
Kilmarnock 1+ goals
80%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
47%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Montrose (draw refunded)
31%
Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montrose at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Kilmarnock away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montrose attack 1.07 + Kilmarnock defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Kilmarnock attack 1.86 + Montrose defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Montrose scores more
23%
level
25%
Kilmarnock scores more
52%

Kilmarnock at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Montrose 0–3 Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock beat Montrose 3-0 in League Cup on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Links Park in Montrose.