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Kilmarnock vs Montrose — FA Cup 2019

Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Montrose
Montrose
4/17/2021FA CupFA Cup · 4th RoundBBSP Stadium Rugby Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kilmarnock54%
×Draw21%
Montrose25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kilmarnock
2.08
Montrose
1.36

Kilmarnock creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kilmarnock
2.50
Montrose
2.22

allows per match

Kilmarnock
0.50
Montrose
1.67

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.00on par
Montrose+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

Montrose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw
75%
Kilmarnock or Montrose
79%
Draw or Montrose
46%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+
32%
Montrose wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals
87%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
61%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
34%
Montrose 1+ goals
74%
Montrose 2+ goals
39%
Montrose 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
68%
Montrose (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Montrose away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 2.50 + Montrose defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Montrose attack 2.22 + Kilmarnock defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kilmarnock scores more
54%
level
21%
Montrose scores more
25%

Kilmarnock at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Kilmarnock 3–1 Montrose

Kilmarnock beat Montrose 3-1 in FA Cup on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at BBSP Stadium Rugby Park in Kilmarnock.