Montpellier 0–2 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats

Montpellier

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Saint Etienne

Z. Davitashvili 22', 2'

10/4/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montpellier41%

×Draw26%

Saint Etienne33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.25

Montpellier

1.41

Saint Etienne

1.25

Montpellier creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 55 away

1.59

creates per match

1.33

1.18

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Montpellier

1.59

Saint Etienne

1.33

allows per match

Montpellier

1.18

Saint Etienne

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montpellier+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

67%

Montpellier or Saint Etienne

74%

Draw or Saint Etienne

59%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

19%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

76%

Montpellier 2+ goals

41%

Montpellier 3+ goals

17%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

71%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

36%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

55%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.59 + Saint Etienne defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Saint Etienne attack 1.33 + Montpellier defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Montpellier scores more

41%

level

26%

Saint Etienne scores more

33%

Montpellier at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Z. Davitashvili

Saint Etienne · F

8.9

Match Events

2'

Z. Davitashvili↳ L. Stassin

22'

Z. Davitashvili↳ E. Annan

33'

33'

38'

42'

45+4'

46'

46'

I. Cardona← A. Boakye

53'

Mickael Nade

76'

E. Tchato← N. El Hannach

76'

V. Orakpo← N. Mbuku

81'

Teji Savanier

82'

Zuriko Davitashvili

87'

A. Moueffek← I. Miladinovic

87'

B. Old← Z. Davitashvili

89'

K. Fayad← T. Savanier

89'

F. Mahboub← E. Junior Pereira da Silva

90+4'

J. Duffus← L. Stassin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierSaint

Overview

41%Possession59%

19Total Shots8

8Corners3

20Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots8

4On Target4

10Off Target3

5Blocked1

9Inside Box6

10Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

363Total Passes557

289Accurate Passes486

80%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls17

4Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2

Ligue 2: Montpellier 0–2 Saint Etienne

Saint Etienne beat Montpellier 2-0 in Ligue 2 on October 4, 2025.

Goals: Z. Davitashvili (2', 22').

Saint Etienne controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 19.

The match was played at Stade de la Mosson in Montpellier.

Montpellier vs Saint Etienne — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Montpellier 0–2 Saint Etienne