Montpellier 2–0 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats

Montpellier

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Saint Etienne

V. Germain 62'

S. Mavididi 32'

9/12/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 225+ matches

Montpellier45%

×Draw27%

Saint Etienne29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.07

Montpellier

1.41

Saint Etienne

1.07

Montpellier creates 32% more chances

Season form · 240 home / 225 away

1.50

creates per match

1.02

1.12

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Montpellier

1.50

Saint Etienne

1.02

allows per match

Montpellier

1.12

Saint Etienne

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montpellier+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

71%

Montpellier or Saint Etienne

73%

Draw or Saint Etienne

55%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

21%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

76%

Montpellier 2+ goals

41%

Montpellier 3+ goals

17%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

66%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

29%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

61%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.12 · 240 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.32 · 225 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.50 + Saint Etienne defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Saint Etienne attack 1.02 + Montpellier defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Montpellier scores more

45%

level

27%

Saint Etienne scores more

29%

Montpellier at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

T. Savanier

Montpellier · M

8.2

Match Events

32'

S. Mavididi↳ T. Savanier

34'

Sepe Elye Wahi

46'

B. Djile← Y. Maçon

55'

Denis Bouanga

58'

N. Gioacchini← E. Wahi

60'

I. Ramírez← A. Nordin

60'

M. Saban← R. Hamouma

62'

V. Germain↳ S. Mavididi

69'

Yvan Neyou

73'

Mickael Nade

77'

M. Esteve← Thuler

77'

A. Aouchiche← D. Bouanga

77'

J. Krasso← W. Khazri

88'

Mathys Saban

90'

Y. Guermouche← S. Mavididi

90'

L. Leroy← V. Germain

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierSaint

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots14

7Corners6

15Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots14

4On Target2

6Off Target9

1Blocked3

8Inside Box6

3Outside Box8

Passing

42%Possession58%

264Total Passes377

183Accurate Passes305

69%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1

Ligue 1: Montpellier 2–0 Saint Etienne

Montpellier beat Saint Etienne 2-0 in Ligue 1 on September 12, 2021.

Goals: S. Mavididi (32'), V. Germain (62').

Saint Etienne controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade de la Mosson in Montpellier.

Montpellier vs Saint Etienne — Ligue 1 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 1: Montpellier 2–0 Saint Etienne