Montpellier 0–2 Metz: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Montpellier

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Metz

H. Maïga 90'

A. Leya 50' (pen)

12/16/2020

Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Montpellier53%

×Draw22%

Metz25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchMetz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.32

Montpellier

1.99

Metz

1.32

Montpellier creates 51% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

1.73

creates per match

0.76

1.88

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Montpellier

1.73

Metz

0.76

allows per match

Montpellier

1.88

Metz

2.24

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Montpellier-0.33scores less

Metz+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Metz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

75%

Montpellier or Metz

78%

Draw or Metz

47%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

31%

Metz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

86%

Montpellier 2+ goals

59%

Montpellier 3+ goals

32%

Metz 1+ goals

73%

Metz 2+ goals

38%

Metz 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

68%

Metz (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.88 · 5 matches

Metz away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.73 + Metz defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.99

Metz attack 0.76 + Montpellier defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Montpellier scores more

53%

level

22%

Metz scores more

25%

Montpellier at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Oukidja

Metz · G

7.9

Match Events

7'

30'

38'

39'

50'

A. LeyaPenalty

63'

O. Nguette← A. Leya

64'

Stephy Mavididi

70'

P. Yade← M. Gueye

76'

Gaëtan Laborde

79'

A. Souquet← S. Sambia

79'

P. Škuletić← S. Mavididi

79'

Yun Il-Lok← F. Mollet

86'

S. Wahi← G. Laborde

90+1'

K. Dolly← T. Savanier

90+3'

V. Angban← H. Maïga

90+3'

Vágner← F. Boulaya

90'

H. Maïga↳ P. Yade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierMetz

Overview

58%Possession42%

14Total Shots9

10Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots9

3On Target5

9Off Target3

2Blocked1

8Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

511Total Passes378

431Accurate Passes306

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1