Metz 1–3 Montpellier: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Metz

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Montpellier

N. de Préville 70'

E. Wahi 48'

S. Mavididi 45+1'

T. Savanier 36'

12/1/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Metz34%

×Draw26%

Montpellier40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetzExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.41

Metz

1.27

Montpellier

1.41

Montpellier creates 11% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 99 away

1.03

creates per match

1.30

1.52

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Metz

1.03

Montpellier

1.30

allows per match

Metz

1.52

Montpellier

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metz+0.00on par

Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Metz or draw

60%

Metz or Montpellier

74%

Draw or Montpellier

66%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+

15%

Montpellier wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals

72%

Metz 2+ goals

36%

Metz 3+ goals

14%

Montpellier 1+ goals

76%

Montpellier 2+ goals

41%

Montpellier 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)

46%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.52 · 77 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.51 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.03 + Montpellier defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Montpellier attack 1.30 + Metz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Metz scores more

34%

level

26%

Montpellier scores more

40%

Montpellier at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

T. Savanier

Montpellier · M

9.2

Match Events

32'

34'

36'

36'

45+1'

48'

52'

56'

70'

N. de Préville↳ O. Nguette

72'

Florent Mollet

73'

S. Sambia← J. Ferri

80'

A. Bassi← P. Sarr

80'

M. Gueye← O. Nguette

82'

Mihailo Ristić

85'

B. Makouana← S. Mavididi

86'

N. Gioacchini← T. Savanier

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MetzMontpellier

Overview

46%Possession54%

20Total Shots10

7Corners4

14Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots10

7On Target7

6Off Target3

7Blocked0

8Inside Box4

12Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

405Total Passes498

347Accurate Passes416

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Ligue 1: Metz 1–3 Montpellier

Montpellier beat Metz 3-1 in Ligue 1 on December 1, 2021.

Goals: T. Savanier (36'), S. Mavididi (45+1'), E. Wahi (48'), N. de Préville (70').

Montpellier controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 20.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.

Metz vs Montpellier — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 1: Metz 1–3 Montpellier