Montpellier 1–1 Lorient: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Montpellier

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lorient

F. Maouassa 90+4'

R. Faivre 68'

5/14/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 35Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Montpellier48%

×Draw23%

Lorient29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchLorient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.36

Montpellier

1.80

Lorient

1.36

Montpellier creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 29 away

1.92

creates per match

1.01

1.72

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Montpellier

1.92

Lorient

1.01

allows per match

Montpellier

1.72

Lorient

1.69

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Montpellier+0.08on par

Lorient-0.08on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Lorient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

71%

Montpellier or Lorient

77%

Draw or Lorient

52%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

26%

Lorient wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

83%

Montpellier 2+ goals

54%

Montpellier 3+ goals

27%

Lorient 1+ goals

74%

Lorient 2+ goals

39%

Lorient 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

62%

Lorient (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.72 · 6 matches

Lorient away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.92 + Lorient defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.80

Lorient attack 1.01 + Montpellier defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Montpellier scores more

48%

level

23%

Lorient scores more

29%

Montpellier at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

R. Faivre

Lorient · F

7.9

Match Events

25'

33'

38'

59'

59'

T. Le Bris← G. Kalulu

68'

R. Faivre↳ D. Yongwa

71'

Enzo Le Fée

72'

F. Maouassa← K. Fayad

72'

F. Sacko← E. Tchato

80'

S. Doucouré← I. Koné

83'

J. Ponceau← R. Faivre

89'

Boubakar Kouyaté

90'

V. Germain← S. Mavididi

90'

A. Gueguin← A. Nordin

90+4'

F. Maouassa↳ E. Wahi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierLorient

Overview

43%Possession57%

15Total Shots11

1.62Expected Goals (xG)0.57

11Corners5

20Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots11

4On Target3

8Off Target4

3Blocked4

9Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

377Total Passes534

308Accurate Passes470

82%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2