Lorient 0–2 Montpellier: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lorient

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Montpellier

E. Wahi 22'

T. Savanier 3'

12/29/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Lorient40%

×Draw25%

Montpellier34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LorientExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.34

Lorient

1.47

Montpellier

1.34

Lorient creates 10% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 6 away

1.34

creates per match

1.48

1.21

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Lorient

1.34

Montpellier

1.48

allows per match

Lorient

1.21

Montpellier

1.60

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.85scores more than expected

finishing

Lorient+0.18scores more

Montpellier+0.85scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorient ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lorient or draw

66%

Lorient or Montpellier

75%

Draw or Montpellier

60%

Winning margin

Lorient wins by 2+

19%

Montpellier wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lorient 1+ goals

77%

Lorient 2+ goals

43%

Lorient 3+ goals

18%

Montpellier 1+ goals

74%

Montpellier 2+ goals

39%

Montpellier 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lorient (draw refunded)

54%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorient at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 31 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.60 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorient attack 1.34 + Montpellier defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Montpellier attack 1.48 + Lorient defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lorient scores more

40%

level

25%

Montpellier scores more

34%

Lorient at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lorient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Omlin

Montpellier · G

7.6

Match Events

3'

7'

22'

28'

37'

B. Innocent← S. Diarra

37'

43'

50'

57'

59'

65'

66'

Y. Cathline← E. Le Fée

72'

B. Makouana← A. Nordin

72'

V. Germain← E. Wahi

81'

C. Matsima← J. Laporte

81'

A. Aouchiche← L. Abergel

86'

A. Souquet← S. Mavididi

90'

Teji Savanier

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LorientMontpellier

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots14

5Corners2

15Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots14

4On Target6

7Off Target3

1Blocked5

9Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

443Total Passes498

364Accurate Passes386

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2