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Sunderland vs QPR — Premier League 2026

Sunderland
Sunderland
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
QPR
QPR
B. Zamora 45+1'
L. Fer 17'
2/10/2015Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sunderland50%
×Draw24%
QPR26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.68
QPR
1.13

Sunderland creates 49% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 24 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.07
QPR
0.92

allows per match

Sunderland
1.34
QPR
2.29

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par
QPR+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
74%
Sunderland or QPR
76%
Draw or QPR
50%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
27%
QPR wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
81%
Sunderland 2+ goals
50%
Sunderland 3+ goals
24%
QPR 1+ goals
68%
QPR 2+ goals
31%
QPR 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
66%
QPR (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

QPR away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.29 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.07 + QPR defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.68

QPR attack 0.92 + Sunderland defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sunderland scores more
50%
level
24%
QPR scores more
26%

Sunderland at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
L. Fer↳ M. Phillips
35'
Bobby Zamora
41'
Sebastian Larsson
45+1'
B. Zamora↳ M. Phillips
46'
R. Álvarez← Jordi Gómez
52'
S. Wright-Phillips← M. Phillips
63'
W. Brown← A. Réveillère
70'
Rio Ferdinand
75'
M. Zárate← L. Fer
78'
Joey Barton
82'
S. Fletcher← C. Wickham
83'
Ricardo Álvarez
85'
M. Doughty← M. Isla

Possession

52%Sunderland

Statistics

SunderlandQPR
Overview
52%Possession48%
8Corners4
8Fouls12
Shots
5On Target4
3Off Target6
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Sunderland vs QPR

QPR beat Sunderland 2-0 in Premier League on February 10, 2015.

Goals: L. Fer (17'), B. Zamora (45+1').

Sunderland dominated possession with 52% of the ball.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.