Montpellier 2–1 Grenoble: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Montpellier

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Grenoble

J. Laporte 71'

E. Molebe 25'

U. Bonnet 90'

4/17/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 31Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montpellier46%

×Draw26%

Grenoble27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchGrenoble

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.06

Montpellier

1.46

Grenoble

1.06

Montpellier creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 138 away

1.59

creates per match

0.94

1.18

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Montpellier

1.59

Grenoble

0.94

allows per match

Montpellier

1.18

Grenoble

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montpellier+0.00on par

Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Grenoble →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

73%

Montpellier or Grenoble

74%

Draw or Grenoble

54%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

23%

Grenoble wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

77%

Montpellier 2+ goals

43%

Montpellier 3+ goals

18%

Grenoble 1+ goals

65%

Grenoble 2+ goals

29%

Grenoble 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

63%

Grenoble (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.33 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.59 + Grenoble defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Grenoble attack 0.94 + Montpellier defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Montpellier scores more

46%

level

26%

Grenoble scores more

27%

Montpellier at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

N. Pays

Montpellier · M

8.3

Match Events

25'

E. Molebe↳ A. Mendy

45'

Theo Sainte Luce

64'

Y. Issoufou← E. Molebe

64'

S. Delos← M. Mion

64'

U. Bonnet← M. Djitte

65'

K. Fayad← A. Gueguin

71'

J. Laporte

72'

L. Bernadou← B. Mouazan

72'

N. Zahui← E. Maurin

74'

T. Savanier← N. Mbuku

78'

Mattheo Xantippe

79'

S. Diba← M. Xantippe

81'

L. Mincarelli← T. Sainte-Luce

90'

U. Bonnet

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierGrenoble

Overview

60%Possession40%

11Total Shots12

4Corners1

10Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots12

6On Target4

2Off Target6

3Blocked2

6Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

565Total Passes364

485Accurate Passes284

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1