Grenoble 1–1 Montpellier: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Grenoble

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Montpellier

N. Elphege 81'

T. Savanier 62'

12/13/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade des Alpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Grenoble34%

×Draw33%

Montpellier33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrenobleExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

0.89

Grenoble

0.92

Montpellier

0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 17 away

1.18

creates per match

0.82

0.95

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Grenoble

1.18

Montpellier

0.82

allows per match

Grenoble

0.95

Montpellier

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par

Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw

67%

Grenoble or Montpellier

67%

Draw or Montpellier

66%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+

12%

Montpellier wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals

60%

Grenoble 2+ goals

23%

Grenoble 3+ goals

7%

Montpellier 1+ goals

59%

Montpellier 2+ goals

22%

Montpellier 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)

51%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.95 · 137 matches

Montpellier away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 1.18 + Montpellier defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.92

Montpellier attack 0.82 + Grenoble defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Grenoble scores more

34%

level

33%

Montpellier scores more

33%

Grenoble at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Benet

Grenoble · M

8.2

Match Events

62'

T. Savanier↳ N. Mbuku

63'

M. Xantippe← M. Mion

63'

H. Mbock← M. Bangre

63'

N. Elphege← M. Djitte

78'

N. Zahui← Y. Diaby

81'

N. Elphege↳ N. Zahui

86'

Theo Chennahi

87'

C. Vidal← E. Sarikaya

89'

Y. Mouanga← T. Chennahi

89'

N. Pays← V. Orakpo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrenobleMontpellier

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots11

7Corners5

16Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots11

5On Target5

7Off Target3

2Blocked3

7Inside Box10

7Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

358Total Passes456

271Accurate Passes366

76%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3