Montpellier 1–3 Dunkerque: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Montpellier

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Dunkerque

A. Mendy 83'

T. Robinet 68'

V. Sasso 58'

G. Yassine 6'

1/5/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montpellier47%

×Draw25%

Dunkerque27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchDunkerque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.10

Montpellier

1.54

Dunkerque

1.10

Montpellier creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 92 away

1.59

creates per match

1.03

1.18

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Montpellier

1.59

Dunkerque

1.03

allows per match

Montpellier

1.18

Dunkerque

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montpellier+0.00on par

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Dunkerque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

73%

Montpellier or Dunkerque

75%

Draw or Dunkerque

53%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

24%

Dunkerque wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

79%

Montpellier 2+ goals

45%

Montpellier 3+ goals

20%

Dunkerque 1+ goals

67%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

30%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

64%

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.59 + Dunkerque defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dunkerque attack 1.03 + Montpellier defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Montpellier scores more

47%

level

25%

Dunkerque scores more

27%

Montpellier at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

80

G. Yassine

Dunkerque · M

8.3

Match Events

6'

G. Yassine

24'

K. Fayad← T. Chennahi

58'

V. Sasso↳ G. Yassine

60'

Mathys Niflore

67'

N. El Hannach← L. Mincarelli

67'

Y. Issoufou← V. Orakpo

68'

T. Robinet↳ A. Zossou

74'

M. Essimi← A. Zossou

75'

A. Kante← T. Robinet

75'

E. Sylvestre← A. Sekongo

76'

Everson Junior

81'

Z. Seha← G. Yassine

82'

M. Diop← E. Bardeli

83'

A. Mendy↳ T. Savanier

89'

Eddy Sylvestre

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierDunkerque

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots16

3Corners6

10Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots16

4On Target11

4Off Target2

2Blocked3

7Inside Box10

3Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

439Total Passes478

364Accurate Passes406

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Ligue 2: Montpellier 1–3 Dunkerque

Dunkerque beat Montpellier 3-1 in Ligue 2 on January 5, 2026.

Goals: G. Yassine (6'), V. Sasso (58'), T. Robinet (68'), A. Mendy (83').

Dunkerque controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade de la Mosson in Montpellier.

Montpellier vs Dunkerque — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Montpellier 1–3 Dunkerque