Dunkerque 0–1 Montpellier: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Dunkerque

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Montpellier

A. Mendy 82'

10/18/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Marcel Tribut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dunkerque32%

×Draw32%

Montpellier36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunkerqueExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

0.97

Dunkerque

0.89

Montpellier

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 17 away

1.13

creates per match

0.82

1.11

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Dunkerque

1.13

Montpellier

0.82

allows per match

Dunkerque

1.11

Montpellier

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw

64%

Dunkerque or Montpellier

68%

Draw or Montpellier

68%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+

11%

Montpellier wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals

59%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

22%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

6%

Montpellier 1+ goals

62%

Montpellier 2+ goals

25%

Montpellier 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

47%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

Montpellier away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.13 + Montpellier defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.89

Montpellier attack 0.82 + Dunkerque defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dunkerque scores more

32%

level

32%

Montpellier scores more

36%

Montpellier at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

S. Ngapandouetnbu

Montpellier · G

7.6

Match Events

30'

46'

60'

66'

71'

74'

82'

85'

Z. Seha← A. Daho

85'

K. Fayad← T. Savanier

85'

A. Sishuba← A. Mendy

90+1'

Khalil Fayad

90'

J. Ndiaye← V. Orakpo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DunkerqueMontpellier

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots8

6Corners4

13Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots8

3On Target3

6Off Target2

1Blocked3

9Inside Box7

1Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

417Total Passes399

349Accurate Passes340

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1