Montpellier 1–3 Boulogne: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Montpellier

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Boulogne

T. Savanier 90' (pen)

C. Fatou 80' (pen)

A. El Farissi 69'

C. Jullien 45' (OG)

9/23/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montpellier45%

×Draw26%

Boulogne29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchBoulogne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.09

Montpellier

1.44

Boulogne

1.09

Montpellier creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

1.59

creates per match

1.00

1.18

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Montpellier

1.59

Boulogne

1.00

allows per match

Montpellier

1.18

Boulogne

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montpellier+0.00on par

Boulogne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Boulogne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

71%

Montpellier or Boulogne

74%

Draw or Boulogne

55%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

22%

Boulogne wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

76%

Montpellier 2+ goals

42%

Montpellier 3+ goals

18%

Boulogne 1+ goals

66%

Boulogne 2+ goals

30%

Boulogne 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

61%

Boulogne (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Boulogne away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.59 + Boulogne defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Boulogne attack 1.00 + Montpellier defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Montpellier scores more

45%

level

26%

Boulogne scores more

29%

Montpellier at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. El Farissi

Boulogne · M

8.0

Match Events

31'

Julien Laporte

40'

C. Jullien← Y. Mouanga

43'

Julien Boyer

45'

C. JullienOwn goal

46'

T. Chennahi← V. Orakpo

57'

Nolan Binet

63'

L. Mincarelli← N. Mbuku

63'

F. Mahboub← N. El Hannach

68'

L. Boiteau← S. Duflos

69'

A. El Farissi↳ L. Boiteau

78'

C. Fatou← G. Capuano

79'

N. Fatar← A. El Farissi

80'

C. FatouPenalty

84'

E. Kouassi← J. Boyer

84'

H. Toure← N. Binet

89'

Adrien Pinot

90'

T. SavanierPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierBoulogne

Overview

54%Possession46%

6Total Shots24

4Corners5

14Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots24

2On Target10

4Off Target8

0Blocked6

4Inside Box16

2Outside Box8

Passing

54%Possession46%

481Total Passes405

405Accurate Passes338

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

8Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls16

0Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2