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Boulogne vs Montpellier — Ligue 2 2018

Boulogne
Boulogne
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montpellier
Montpellier
C. Fatou 59'
1/16/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade de la Libération

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Boulogne26%
×Draw30%
Montpellier44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boulogne
0.82
Montpellier
1.17

Montpellier creates 43% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 17 away

creates per match

Boulogne
1.00
Montpellier
0.82

allows per match

Boulogne
1.52
Montpellier
0.65

finishing

Boulogne+0.00on par
Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulogne ↓

Montpellier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Boulogne or draw
56%
Boulogne or Montpellier
70%
Draw or Montpellier
74%

Winning margin

Boulogne wins by 2+
8%
Montpellier wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Boulogne 1+ goals
56%
Boulogne 2+ goals
20%
Boulogne 3+ goals
5%
Montpellier 1+ goals
69%
Montpellier 2+ goals
33%
Montpellier 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Boulogne (draw refunded)
37%
Montpellier (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulogne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

Montpellier away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulogne attack 1.00 + Montpellier defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.82

Montpellier attack 0.82 + Boulogne defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Boulogne scores more
26%
level
30%
Montpellier scores more
44%

Montpellier at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
J. BoyerBoulogneBoulogne · D
7.6

Match Events

29'
Julien Laporte
30'
Noah Fatar
46'
M. Lecolier← N. Fatar
58'
T. Chennahi← E. Junior Pereira da Silva
59'
C. Fatou↳ N. Binet
68'
J. Bultel← S. Duflos
69'
S. Keita← C. Fatou
69'
N. Mbuku← N. Pays
70'
K. Fayad← Y. Issoufou
78'
Siad Gourville
80'
J. Martin← A. El Farissi
84'
Demba Thiam
90'
E. Kouassi← D. Thiam

Possession

40%Boulogne

Shots

6Boulogne

Pass accuracy

45%Boulogne

Statistics

BoulogneMontpellier
Overview
40%Possession60%
6Total Shots7
5Corners2
9Fouls15
Shots
6Total Shots7
1On Target2
5Off Target3
0Blocked2
3Inside Box3
3Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
315Total Passes479
211Accurate Passes392
67%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides7

Ligue 2: Boulogne 1–0 Montpellier

Boulogne beat Montpellier 1-0 in Ligue 2 on January 16, 2026.

Goals: C. Fatou (59').

Montpellier controlled possession (60%) and registered 7 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade de la Libération in Boulogne-sur-Mer.