Monterrey 0–1 Necaxa: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Monterrey

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Necaxa

0 R. Aguirre 90+10'

10/24/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Monterrey51%

×Draw24%

Necaxa25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonterreyExpected goals in this matchNecaxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.13

Monterrey

1.73

Necaxa

1.13

Monterrey creates 53% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 139 away

1.76

creates per match

1.27

0.99

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Monterrey

1.76

Necaxa

1.27

allows per match

Monterrey

0.99

Necaxa

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par

Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Necaxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw

75%

Monterrey or Necaxa

76%

Draw or Necaxa

49%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+

28%

Necaxa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals

82%

Monterrey 2+ goals

52%

Monterrey 3+ goals

25%

Necaxa 1+ goals

68%

Necaxa 2+ goals

31%

Necaxa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)

67%

Necaxa (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.99 · 156 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.76 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Monterrey defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Monterrey scores more

51%

level

24%

Necaxa scores more

25%

Monterrey at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Escoboza

Necaxa · D

8.0

Match Events

20'

Rodrigo AguirreCard upgrade

21'

Rodrigo Aguirre

29'

J. Reyes← D. Vergara

48'

Agustín Oliveros

53'

C. Rodríguez← D. Parra

53'

R. Funes Mori← J. Alvarado

55'

Edson Gutiérrez

61'

F. Batista← M. Salas

61'

Jonathan Gónzalez← H. Jurado

62'

S. Medina← E. Gutiérrez

62'

C. Ortiz← M. Kranevitter

63'

Alonso Escoboza

67'

Rodrigo AguirrePenalty cancelled

80'

L. García← A. Medina

84'

K. Hernández← J. Campbell

90+7'

E. Hernández← L. Malagón

90+12'

F. Arce← A. Zendejas

90+12'

Julio González← R. Aguirre

90+10'

0 R. Aguirre↳ A. Zendejas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonterreyNecaxa

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots14

3Corners5

20Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots14

1On Target3

5Off Target9

5Blocked2

8Inside Box9

3Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

327Total Passes348

243Accurate Passes282

74%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Liga MX: Monterrey 0–1 Necaxa

Necaxa beat Monterrey 1-0 in Liga MX on October 24, 2021.

Goals: 0 R. Aguirre (90+10').

Necaxa controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe.

Monterrey vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga MX: Monterrey 0–1 Necaxa