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Monterrey vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Monterrey
Monterreyadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
V. Janssen 73'
J. Gallardo 10'
M. Quiroga 64'
12/5/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - Semi-finalsEstadio BBVA Bancomer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Monterrey51%
×Draw24%
Necaxa25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterrey
1.73
Necaxa
1.13

Monterrey creates 53% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 139 away

creates per match

Monterrey
1.76
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Monterrey
0.99
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw
75%
Monterrey or Necaxa
76%
Draw or Necaxa
49%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+
28%
Necaxa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals
82%
Monterrey 2+ goals
52%
Monterrey 3+ goals
25%
Necaxa 1+ goals
68%
Necaxa 2+ goals
31%
Necaxa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)
67%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.99 · 156 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.76 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Monterrey defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Monterrey scores more
51%
level
24%
Necaxa scores more
25%

Monterrey at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
V. JanssenMonterreyMonterrey · F
8.2

Match Events

10'
J. Gallardo
39'
Vincent Janssen
41'
Rodrigo Noya
62'
K. Mercado← J. Delgado
64'
M. Quiroga↳ J. Angulo
67'
Stefan Medina
70'
M. Meza← L. Vangioni
73'
V. Janssen↳ J. Gallardo
76'
J. Gónzalez← C. Rodríguez
77'
Claudio Baeza
83'
J. Urretaviscaya← D. Pabón
83'
E. Herrera← M. Quiroga
86'
M. Salas← F. Gallegos

Possession

59%Monterrey

Shots

24Monterrey

Pass accuracy

54%Monterrey

Statistics

MonterreyNecaxa
Overview
59%Possession41%
24Total Shots4
9Corners1
16Fouls15
Shots
24Total Shots4
8On Target2
14Off Target2
2Blocked0
13Inside Box2
11Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
409Total Passes292
315Accurate Passes192
77%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
16Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Monterrey vs Necaxa

Monterrey beat Necaxa 2-1 in Liga MX on December 5, 2019.

Goals: J. Gallardo (10'), M. Quiroga (64'), V. Janssen (73').

Monterrey controlled possession (59%) and registered 24 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA Bancomer in Guadalupe.