Monterrey 0–2 Necaxa: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Monterrey

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Necaxa

J. Angulo 81', 36'

9/14/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 9Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Monterrey51%

×Draw24%

Necaxa25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonterreyExpected goals in this matchNecaxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.13

Monterrey

1.73

Necaxa

1.13

Monterrey creates 53% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 139 away

1.76

creates per match

1.27

0.99

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Monterrey

1.76

Necaxa

1.27

allows per match

Monterrey

0.99

Necaxa

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par

Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Necaxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw

75%

Monterrey or Necaxa

76%

Draw or Necaxa

49%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+

28%

Necaxa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals

82%

Monterrey 2+ goals

52%

Monterrey 3+ goals

25%

Necaxa 1+ goals

68%

Necaxa 2+ goals

31%

Necaxa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)

67%

Necaxa (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.99 · 156 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.76 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Monterrey defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Monterrey scores more

51%

level

24%

Necaxa scores more

25%

Monterrey at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Angulo

Necaxa · M

8.4

Match Events

28'

Ricardo Chávez

36'

J. Angulo↳ M. Quiroga

46'

D. Pabón← J. Vásquez

55'

Miguel Layún

58'

D. Parra← C. Rodríguez

58'

A. Hurtado← V. Janssen

64'

Rodrigo Noya

65'

M. Salas← C. Baeza

72'

A. Peña← C. Calderón

77'

K. Mercado← J. Delgado

81'

J. Angulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonterreyNecaxa

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots12

6Corners2

10Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots12

3On Target5

8Off Target4

2Blocked3

7Inside Box8

6Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

388Total Passes343

294Accurate Passes256

76%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides4