Monterrey 2–2 Monarcas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Monterrey

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Monarcas

N. Sánchez 65' (pen), 26' (pen)

A. Rocha 46'

M. Rodríguez 39'

1/18/2020

Liga MX · Clausura - 2Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Monterrey48%

×Draw24%

Monarcas27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonterreyExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.17

Monterrey

1.65

Monarcas

1.17

Monterrey creates 41% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 47 away

1.77

creates per match

1.34

0.99

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Monterrey

1.77

Monarcas

1.34

allows per match

Monterrey

0.99

Monarcas

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw

73%

Monterrey or Monarcas

76%

Draw or Monarcas

52%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+

26%

Monarcas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals

81%

Monterrey 2+ goals

49%

Monterrey 3+ goals

23%

Monarcas 1+ goals

69%

Monarcas 2+ goals

33%

Monarcas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)

64%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.99 · 159 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.77 + Monarcas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

Monarcas attack 1.34 + Monterrey defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Monterrey scores more

48%

level

24%

Monarcas scores more

27%

Monterrey at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

N. Sánchez

Monterrey · D

8.6

Match Events

23'

Miguel Sansores

26'

N. SánchezPenalty

39'

M. Rodríguez↳ L. Mendoza

46'

A. Rocha

52'

Candido Ramirez

65'

N. SánchezPenalty

69'

M. Layún← R. Pizarro

69'

J. Gónzalez← C. Rodríguez

70'

F. Aristeguieta← M. Sansores

78'

L. Villafáñez← M. Rodríguez

85'

A. Loba← D. Pabón

87'

C. Huerta← L. Mendoza

90'

José Ortiz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonterreyMonarcas

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots7

7Corners3

11Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots7

5On Target3

4Off Target3

4Blocked1

8Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

279Total Passes382

205Accurate Passes302

73%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls17

0Yellow Cards3

5Offsides3