Monarcas 0–1 Monterrey: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Monarcas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Monterrey

M. Layún 90+6'

8/10/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Monarcas37%

×Draw25%

Monterrey38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonarcasExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.40

Monarcas

1.39

Monterrey

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 154 away

1.49

creates per match

1.36

1.44

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Monarcas

1.49

Monterrey

1.36

allows per match

Monarcas

1.44

Monterrey

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par

Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw

62%

Monarcas or Monterrey

75%

Draw or Monterrey

63%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+

17%

Monterrey wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals

75%

Monarcas 2+ goals

40%

Monarcas 3+ goals

16%

Monterrey 1+ goals

75%

Monterrey 2+ goals

41%

Monterrey 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)

50%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 41 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.49 + Monterrey defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Monterrey attack 1.36 + Monarcas defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Monarcas scores more

37%

level

25%

Monterrey scores more

38%

Monterrey at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Layún

Monterrey · D

8.0

Match Events

24'

31'

36'

44'

44'

45+2'

56'

58'

59'

C. Montes← N. Sánchez

84'

L. Mendoza← G. Lezcano

85'

E. Banda← C. Rodríguez

90+4'

M. Sansores← L. Villafáñez

90+7'

L. Vangioni← D. Pabón

90+6'

M. Layún↳ E. Banda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonarcasMonterrey

Overview

31%Possession69%

15Total Shots18

7Corners6

10Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots18

2On Target3

6Off Target10

7Blocked5

6Inside Box8

9Outside Box10

Passing

31%Possession69%

233Total Passes523

162Accurate Passes460

70%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1