Monterrey 1–2 Monarcas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Monterrey

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Monarcas

D. Pabón 86' (pen)

R. Ruidíaz 90+1'

G. Lezcano 31'

5/7/2017

Liga MX · Clausura - 17Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Monterrey50%

×Draw24%

Monarcas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonterreyExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.14

Monterrey

1.67

Monarcas

1.14

Monterrey creates 46% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 50 away

1.77

creates per match

1.28

0.99

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Monterrey

1.77

Monarcas

1.28

allows per match

Monterrey

0.99

Monarcas

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw

74%

Monterrey or Monarcas

76%

Draw or Monarcas

50%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+

26%

Monarcas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals

81%

Monterrey 2+ goals

50%

Monterrey 3+ goals

23%

Monarcas 1+ goals

68%

Monarcas 2+ goals

32%

Monarcas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)

66%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.99 · 158 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.77 + Monarcas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.67

Monarcas attack 1.28 + Monterrey defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Monterrey scores more

50%

level

24%

Monarcas scores more

26%

Monterrey at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Pabón

Monterrey · F

7.9

Match Events

27'

R. Vilchis← A. Polo

31'

G. Lezcano↳ R. Vilchis

38'

Emanuel Loeschbor

55'

Rogelio Funes Mori← L. Fuentes

60'

D. Valdés← G. Lezcano

62'

Y. Chará← J. Cristaldo

71'

Gerardo Rodríguez

73'

Alfonso González← C. Sánchez

77'

Rogelio Funes Mori

86'

D. PabónPenalty

87'

M. Sansores← R. Millar

90'

Raul Ruidiaz

90+1'

R. Ruidíaz↳ M. Sansores

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonterreyMonarcas

Overview

68%Possession32%

18Total Shots9

3Corners1

18Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots9

6On Target4

8Off Target3

4Blocked2

12Inside Box3

6Outside Box6

Passing

68%Possession32%

569Total Passes267

475Accurate Passes185

83%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0