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Monterrey vs FC Cincinnati — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

Monterrey
Monterreyadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
3/15/2024CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Monterrey51%
×Draw22%
FC Cincinnati28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterrey
2.04
FC Cincinnati
1.46

Monterrey creates 40% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

Monterrey
2.25
FC Cincinnati
2.17

allows per match

Monterrey
0.75
FC Cincinnati
1.83

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par
FC Cincinnati+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

FC Cincinnati →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw
72%
Monterrey or FC Cincinnati
78%
Draw or FC Cincinnati
49%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+
30%
FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals
87%
Monterrey 2+ goals
60%
Monterrey 3+ goals
33%
FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
77%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
43%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)
65%
FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

FC Cincinnati away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 2.25 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

FC Cincinnati attack 2.17 + Monterrey defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Monterrey scores more
51%
level
22%
FC Cincinnati scores more
28%

Monterrey at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monterrey vs FC Cincinnati

Monterrey beat FC Cincinnati 2-1 in CONCACAF Champions League on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe.