FC Cincinnati 0–1 Monterrey: Result & Stats

FC Cincinnati

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Monterrey

3/8/2024

CONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16TQL Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Cincinnati55%

×Draw22%

Monterrey23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CincinnatiExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.19

FC Cincinnati

1.94

Monterrey

1.19

FC Cincinnati creates 63% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

3.00

creates per match

1.87

0.50

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

FC Cincinnati

3.00

Monterrey

1.87

allows per match

FC Cincinnati

0.50

Monterrey

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Cincinnati+0.00on par

Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati or draw

77%

FC Cincinnati or Monterrey

78%

Draw or Monterrey

45%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati wins by 2+

32%

Monterrey wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati 1+ goals

86%

FC Cincinnati 2+ goals

58%

FC Cincinnati 3+ goals

30%

Monterrey 1+ goals

70%

Monterrey 2+ goals

33%

Monterrey 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)

70%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati attack 3.00 + Monterrey defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.94

Monterrey attack 1.87 + FC Cincinnati defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Cincinnati scores more

55%

level

22%

Monterrey scores more

23%

FC Cincinnati at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Cincinnati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff