Monterrey 4–0 Club Queretaro: Result & Stats

Monterrey

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club Queretaro

3/5/2026

Liga MX · Clausura - 9Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Monterrey57%

×Draw23%

Club Queretaro20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonterreyExpected goals in this matchClub Queretaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.94

Monterrey

1.76

Club Queretaro

0.94

Monterrey creates 87% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 137 away

1.75

creates per match

0.91

0.97

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Monterrey

1.75

Club Queretaro

0.91

allows per match

Monterrey

0.97

Club Queretaro

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Club Queretaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw

80%

Monterrey or Club Queretaro

77%

Draw or Club Queretaro

43%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+

32%

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals

83%

Monterrey 2+ goals

52%

Monterrey 3+ goals

26%

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

61%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

24%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)

74%

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.97 · 157 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.77 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.75 + Club Queretaro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.76

Club Queretaro attack 0.91 + Monterrey defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Monterrey scores more

57%

level

23%

Club Queretaro scores more

20%

Monterrey at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff