Club Queretaro 0–1 Monterrey: Result & Stats

Club Queretaro

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Monterrey

9/14/2025

Liga MX · Apertura - 8Estadio La Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Club Queretaro36%

×Draw27%

Monterrey37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.26

Club Queretaro

1.25

Monterrey

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 155 away

1.22

creates per match

1.35

1.17

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.22

Monterrey

1.35

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.17

Monterrey

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

63%

Club Queretaro or Monterrey

73%

Draw or Monterrey

64%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

16%

Monterrey wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

71%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

36%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

13%

Monterrey 1+ goals

72%

Monterrey 2+ goals

36%

Monterrey 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

50%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.28 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.22 + Monterrey defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Monterrey attack 1.35 + Club Queretaro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

36%

level

27%

Monterrey scores more

37%

Monterrey at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff