Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Monterrey vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

Monterrey
Monterrey
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
4/19/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 15Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Monterrey42%
×Draw24%
CF Pachuca34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterrey
1.63
CF Pachuca
1.45

Monterrey creates 12% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

creates per match

Monterrey
1.82
CF Pachuca
1.54

allows per match

Monterrey
1.36
CF Pachuca
1.43

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw
66%
Monterrey or CF Pachuca
76%
Draw or CF Pachuca
58%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+
21%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals
80%
Monterrey 2+ goals
48%
Monterrey 3+ goals
22%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
77%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
42%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)
55%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.82 + CF Pachuca defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

CF Pachuca attack 1.54 + Monterrey defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Monterrey scores more
42%
level
24%
CF Pachuca scores more
34%

Monterrey at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monterrey vs CF Pachuca

CF Pachuca beat Monterrey 3-1 in Liga MX on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey.