CF Pachuca 3–0 Monterrey: Result & Stats | Liga MX

CF Pachuca

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Monterrey

E. Montiel 78'

A. Dominguez 55'

J. Cadiz 51'

7/13/2025

Liga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

CF Pachuca47%

×Draw24%

Monterrey29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.27

CF Pachuca

1.70

Monterrey

1.27

CF Pachuca creates 34% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

1.72

creates per match

1.45

1.10

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.72

Monterrey

1.45

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.10

Monterrey

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

71%

CF Pachuca or Monterrey

76%

Draw or Monterrey

53%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

25%

Monterrey wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

82%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

51%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

24%

Monterrey 1+ goals

72%

Monterrey 2+ goals

36%

Monterrey 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

62%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.72 + Monterrey defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.70

Monterrey attack 1.45 + CF Pachuca defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

47%

level

24%

Monterrey scores more

29%

CF Pachuca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

A. Bautista

CF Pachuca · M

8.3

Match Events

13'

Eduardo Bauermann

22'

Jesús Corona

45'

Sergio Barreto

46'

F. Ambriz← A. Alvarado

51'

J. Cadiz↳ A. Bautista

52'

Jhonder CádizGoal confirmed

55'

A. Dominguez↳ J. Cadiz

58'

R. de la Rosa← I. Fimbres

63'

V. Guzman← L. Quinones

67'

Óliver Torres

70'

Sergio Ramos

71'

Pedro Pedraza

72'

B. A. Garcia Caprizo← A. Dominguez

72'

A. Gonzalez← J. Rodriguez

78'

E. Montiel↳ V. Guzman

81'

J. Lopez← P. Pedraza

81'

I. Hernandez← J. Cadiz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFMonterrey

Overview

41%Possession59%

16Total Shots12

1.39Expected Goals (xG)0.31

3Corners7

7Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots12

6On Target3

7Off Target5

3Blocked4

8Inside Box4

8Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

358Total Passes514

288Accurate Passes447

80%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3